5 crisis-resilience lessons from Nigeria

This week I have been more attentive than usual, at watching the daily media briefings of the Nigerian Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 and listened to senior government officials giving account, taking questions and just responding on various aspects of the nationwide response. And I must confess I was impressed. Impressed – because I could see a level of commitment, focus and determination that would seem to be at variance with the norm in terms of public stewardship in Nigeria.

And I know there are diverse views on this but from my perspective – 3 months into the pandemic, save for a few exceptions in some outlier states, Nigerian public officials have largely risen to the occasion. At the state level in the hardest hit states led by Lagos – the commercial capital – and at the Federal level, various government agencies – the Presidential task force on COVID-19, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), the Federal Ministry of Health, Lagos state government etc. have been exceptional in their leadership and coordination of the nationwide response actively supported by the private sector, other engaged segments of society and every day Nigerians.

There has been a determination and unity of purpose that one would wish to see as normal governance practise outside of a crisis response. To put this in context, Nigeria with a population of over 200 million people[i] is the most populous country in Africa. Its Human Development Index (HDI) ranks as bottom quartile. [ii]. Life expectancy at birth is about 54 years and its health system is also ranked as being one of the worst in the world. (Please do not read this to infer a deficit in human capacity – in fact about 50% of Nigerian registered doctors are working outside of the country. [iii] The problem is the system not the people).

 It is also estimated that about 90 million Nigerians live in extreme poverty.[iv] The poverty narrative however does not tell the whole story – as income inequality is also at extreme levels. The richest man in Africa is a Nigerian and Oxfam (a UK based charity), estimates that the combined wealth of the country’s five richest men ($29.9 billion) is a rough estimate of what it would take to end extreme poverty at a national level.[v]

Ironically, Nigeria still has the largest economy in Africa in terms of nominal GDP[vi] but with its growing and young population (average age of 17 years), the development challenge continues to be massive.

Nigeria has also been dealing with multiple peace and security crises for over a decade; the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East since 2009; armed bandits crisis in the North-west since 2014; escalation of the farmer herder crisis since 2015; as well as ongoing spate of kidnappings and other security issues nationwide. And depending on how you look at it – its economy is more or less perpetually in a state of pseudo-crisis – import dependent on earnings from the oil industry and extremely vulnerable to the vagaries in global oil price.

It is in this context that a global pandemic was declared in January 2020 with Nigeria’s index case recorded on February 26. The NCDC reports that as at June 4, 2020 there are 11,515 confirmed cases and 323 deaths in Nigeria – with a mortality rate of <3%. [vii]

It also has the 3rd highest number of cases on the continent. And although the country is yet to flatten the curve, testing is lagging and confirmed cases are on the rise, the sort of chaos that one would have expected – even with the incidence of 1000 confirmed cases of a highly infectious and potentially fatal disease in a country

like Nigeria – has simply not happened.

And therein lies the paradox of Nigeria.

1. Crisis brings out the best in us. I’ve lived in Nigeria most of my life and gotten used to the fact that just when people think the nation is on the brink and is about to dissolve into tiny bits, the unexpected happens and somehow, we turn the curve. It is very difficult to make good scenarios about Nigeria because the country is highly unpredictable and tends to move from one extreme to the other.

The advantage of this is the inherent ability to somehow unleash the best of its resources to tackle a problem that threatens to take us all down equally as opposed to one that benefits some against others. The negative side is that sustainable development and transformation is tough as institutional change often does not gather enough moss to become the norm.

2. We are unstoppable when we want something bad enough. Now anyone who knows a Nigerian will know this. The Nigerian can-do spirit is legendary especially on an individual achievement basis. What we are yet to master – is how to translate this into a collective can-do effort outside of a crisis management context.

3. Every problem in Nigeria can be solved if and when we are willing. And we’ve seen examples of this time and time again. i.e. Transition to democratic rule, the Niger Delta militancy crisis, successive elections, the Ebola crisis etc. Each one of these crises was projected by external experts to sink Nigeria. They were all proven wrong. Nigeria always managed to survive and rebound – against all odds.

4. Problems only persist when we as Nigerians are unwilling to confront it. The uniqueness of Nigeria is that everything has a political solution because it is a very political country. With over 200 ethnic groups and as many distinct languages, dialects and cultural value systems, almost every decision is political. For that reason, a number of Nigerians believe that certain security challenges have persisted because of a lack of political will to tackle it head on. This view is also supported by perspectives outside of the country.[viii]

5. Unity of purpose is our greatest strength. We have achieved far more in this crisis through collaboration than division has ever delivered to us. Nigerians have taken an all-hands-on-deck-approach. Communities have bonded together to support the vulnerable. Health systems are being strengthened. Hundreds of new hospital beds added nationwide; Molecular laboratory testing capacity was doubled within 90 days across the nation etc.

This is not to say that the crisis response has not been without challenges and controversy – far from it but nothing significantly different from what has occurred in other parts of the world, even in far more developed economies.

6. Nigerians love life and are willing to fight for it. As despondent as the economic situation in Nigeria somehow can feel, Nigerians still love life. There is a common saying in Nigeria that “when there is life, there is hope” and this sort of sums up the national psyche on a lot of issues.

7. Most of us are in a love-hate relationship with our country. Even though we express a lot of frustration about the country and wish things would work better, even those Nigerians who migrate to other countries continue to maintain an unhealthy obsession with local politics, much to the chagrin of those of us who remain in country.

There are many lessons to learn from Nigeria in terms of how it maintains its resilience and somehow manages to achieve (what seems like) a lot with very little – in spite of several structural deficiencies that should otherwise have rendered it incapable.

5 LESSONS ….

1. Rising to the moment in the crisis: We all need to take a step back to think about what this crisis requires from us on a personal level. Is it leadership, resilience, innovation, re-skilling? The fact is that a crisis requires a commensurate RISING to the occasion. You cannot meet a crisis head on by staying on the same pre-crisis level. So the question to ask is – what does that RISING mean in your specific context?

2. Unity of purpose: There is no better time to be single minded about what success looks like NOW and post pandemic. Is it about getting a job? Paying the bills? Or increasing control over your life? Identifying a core purpose is at this time and single-mindedly following through is absolutely critical.

3. Problem solving: Break your current situation down into problems and think about what you need to do to solve them. Is the problem monthly income, employment, stability and security? What are the barriers to all of these?

• What levers do you have to influence it?
• Who in your network can help?
• What options do you have?
• What can you start doing now on any of these that will move the needle a bit?
• What help or support do you require and where can you get it?
• Who should you be talking to now?

Now is the time to use all networks at your disposal. The lock-down period has made me appreciate the importance of belonging to diverse and influential WhatsApp chat groups. You can learn and gain a lot from these groups and they should be as diverse as possible. E.g faith-based, work, education, profession, lifestyle, business, residential/community etc.

If you live and work in Nigeria – and all your whatsapp chat groups are in the same circle, then you are likely to be very constrained now and post-pandemic because digitally-enabled networking is here to stay; and the more diverse your networks, the wider your influence.

4. Nigerians love life. That love of life has not diminished. In fact, if anything – the pandemic has only reinforced it. Although the current situation is forcing us to re-evaluate priorities, it has not changed the appetite for social networking or lifestyle celebration and the number of zoom events that have taken place over the period have been simply exhausting – including all-night zoom birthday parties. #OnlyInNigeria

What this means is that in spite of the ongoing pandemic-driven lull in events and social gatherings, once things normalize, there is still potential for a a robust livelihood in those areas. The challenge for entrepreneurs in that line of business is how to deliver a phenomenal virtually-enabled and socially distanced, multi-locational food & music experience for hard core party lovers and other high-profile clients in the intervening period.

5. Nigerians are passionate about their country: One major lesson from the pandemic is that the developed world is not the utopia we are made to believe and there are universal challenges around leadership, inclusion, governance, support for the vulnerable etc. And this is inspiring a section of Nigerians to be more passionate about insisting that we get things right going forward; and that more citizens get involved in community action and governance as well as commercially-driven innovation and problem-solving.

So now and post-pandemic – one can’t go wrong to creatively tap into that passion in a commercially effective way. Whatever it is we do from now on, should key into the passion that Nigerians have for their country. For our way of life, communication, learning, culture, events, music, drama, movies, fiesta, family, friends, fashion, food, social interaction etc. All the things we have sorely missed since March 2020.

COVID-19 has only tempered the expression of that passion. But it still burns deep. Now is the time to position ourselves for the incremental expression of that passion as the months go by and we (by God’s grace) flatten the curve on COVID-19 and resume life in what would be our new-normal post-pandemic.